Monday, July 04, 2005

I see the Future...

Mahablog calls it right on the impending SC judicial nomination when she writes:

"Liberals are hoping for a not-activist judge who will rule based on law and the facts of the case. The Right is howling for a way-activist judge who will impose a hard right interpretation to everthing, damn the case and damn the Constitution. And this is happening while the Right is snarling that it's the Left who wants to use the Courts to impose its will."

But I disagree with her prediction here:

"If he nominates anyone who displeases the Right, he's likely to lose much of their support, and right now that's pretty much all he has. If he does nominate a troglodyte the Senate confirmation fight will be fierce and nasty and protracted, and he can't count on the GOP Senators to march in lockstep. He's got to find someone moderate enough to keep the Senate GOP together, but enough of a whackjob to please the Right."

I think W wants a "fierce, nasty, and protracted fight." In fact, I think it might well be the only thing that can save his foundering presidency.

If he goes the "troglodyte" route (as I suggested here), here's all the benefits he gets:
*Immediate tightening of his base. The Dobsians will pull out all stops. They will raise money like crazy, run ads, and turn the culture war artillery rate up to "11".

*The base, which is starting to have a doubt or two at the margins, about the war, shifts its focus to a place where the light is much better on W.

*The media's attention also shifts, away from the war, and to the culture wars. W can't win the culture war either but shifting attention away from the far more consequential conflict is a HUGE win.

*If said troglodyte is filibustered/rejected, then the GOP has another fundraising issue for 2006, as well as an issue that distracts from the war. Additionally, W can then "lower his price" and nominate the moderate, playing to a "healing the nation" narrative that the MSM will be all too happy to indulge, and for which the far right will forgive, since he tried mightily to nominate a Child of Jesus first, only to be temporarily thwarted by the Pharisees, uh, liberal Democrats.

*And, if W were to nominate a moderate from the outset, he can kiss off his base, and the rest of his presidency.
Here comes Jabba!